Yuki Tsunoda says Red Bull team principal Christian Horner told him to be prepared in case of a promotion before his seat swap with Liam Lawson was confirmed,

Red Bull opted to replace Lawson after just two races of the 2025 season, with the New Zealander failing to get out of Q1 in either event and not troubling the points. Tsunoda got the nod to make the step up last week, and says Horner had told him of the possibility prior to finalizing the decision.

“I can’t say specific details, to be honest,” Tsunoda said, “The first call I got was from Christian Horner after China, saying maybe be prepared, things might change a little bit. That was around Monday or Tuesday.

“I was in the UK for preparation for Suzuka – that was already planned. I did a simulator session with Red Bull Racing, at that point it was just in case. Within two or three days in the UK, he confirmed it in person. So that was kind of the timeline. I can’t say when specifically but that was the timeline.”

Tsunoda also says Horner wanted him to keep the possibility he would be promoted to himself, but he has since received messages from former Red Bull drivers once the news was made official.

“He wanted me to be very confidential, so literally I didn’t call anyone … I really didn’t say anything, not even to my parents. Actually, I told them maybe the day before the news came out.

“I got a message from Pierre [Gasly], that he wanted to call me about the experience he had in Red Bull, about the things he should have done in Red Bull and he wanted to share a couple of ideas he thought could work for the coming races in Red Bull. That was very nice of him and very useful tips.

“I also got support from Checo [Perez] as well. All Red Bull family drivers gave me supportive messages. Those two have been very supportive to me, and I really appreciate it. They’re drivers I respect a lot, so I’m very happy.”

On Thursday Tsunoda revealed he had yet to speak to Helmut Marko about his move, later finding he had missed a call from the Red Bull advisor. Horner, meanwhile, has given the Japanese driver clear instructions as to what is expected of him.

“Basically, be as close to Max as possible, which anyway gives good results for the team, also it allows the team to support other strategies in the race. They’ve clearly said the main priority is Max, which I completely understand, because he’s a four-time world champion and so far already in the last few races even in difficult situations he performed well.

“Also, to help the development as well with my feedback. They were very happy with my feedback in Abu Dhabi, so just continue that. But the main priority is to be close to Max, which won’t be easy, for sure.”

Given his first race for Red Bull is his home grand prix at Suzuka, Tsunoda says it’s a perfect scenario for him to get the chance to try and fight nearer the front during the last year of the Honda partnership.

“Really looking forward to it – it can’t be crazier than this situation. First race in Red Bull Racing and on top of it, a home grand prix. I think it’s the best situation ever. I’m just excited. Simulator went well. I spent a few days in Tokyo, which was really busy, but at the same time I was able to spend it with friends as well. So really good so far.”

Liam Lawson admits he was surprised to be returning to Racing Bulls ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix and believes his best interests were served staying at Red Bull.

Two tough races to start the season led to Red Bull making a shock driver change last week, with Lawson swapping seats with Yuki Tsunoda who has been promoted on account of his greater experience. One reason given by team principal Christian Horner was that Red Bull has “a duty of care to protect and develop Liam”, but when those comments were put to Lawson by RACER he confirmed he holds a different view.

“I think confidence-wise it doesn’t change a lot,” Lawson said. “We all have enough self-belief to be here and to make it to Formula 1. If you don’t have that self-belief, it makes it very difficult. So I think we all have that naturally – it doesn’t really change how I feel about myself.

“I think what it’s doing for me… Obviously, the best opportunity I had felt like it was with Red Bull Racing. That’s where we’re all working towards. That’s what I was working towards since joining the junior program as a 16-year-old. So obviously, I would have liked to make that opportunity work and that’s in my best interest. But obviously, Christian and the team will have their opinions on what’s best, and that’s up to them to decide.”

Speculation relating to Lawson’s future began during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend, but the New Zealander insists he had not been given the impression he could be replaced so soon.

“No, I had no idea in China. It was something that was decided, I guess, the Monday or Tuesday afterwards. I found out after China basically. So yeah, it was, I think for all of us, probably more unexpected. But it was after the weekend.

“[The first communication] was more of a done deal, I would say. I left China … starting preparations for Japan, and basically I had a phone call basically saying that this was what was going to happen.

“I think I was more surprised. Obviously it’s very early in the season and I would say I was hoping to go to a track that I’d raced before and have a clean weekend, to have a chance like that. But the decision obviously was made when I was told.

“So although it was tough to hear, I had one or two days to sort of think about it, and then I was in Faenza with VCARB starting preparations, seat fits, and then you’re basically just focused on the job. I have the opportunity to still be in Formula 1 and still racing, and that is the main thing for me.

“With this opportunity, I’m excited to be here. Obviously it’s been a strong start to the season for this team – for VCARB – so I guess it’s exciting for me to now come in here in this position.”

Lawson’s demotion came after a disrupted pre-season, reliability issues in practice in Australia and then a Sprint weekend in China, with both tracks being new to the 23-year-old. While not feeling hard done by to face problems, he suggests those aspects were not factored into the decision to replace him.

“In Formula 1 it’s, it’s motorsport, we have issues. That’s part of [the sport] especially with these cars that are pushing the limits like they are. I think I’d maybe hoped that that would be maybe taken into consideration more. And I think that’s why for me it was important to come to a place that I’d raced before and driven before [at Suzuka].

“Melbourne and China are both tough tracks. And with the way the weekends went, they weren’t the smoothest. But it’s motorsport, and as I said, the decision was not mine, but I’ll make the most of this one.”

Welcome to the RACER Mailbag. Questions for any of RACER’s writers can be sent to [email protected]. We love hearing your comments and opinions, but letters that include a question are more likely to be published. Questions received after 3pm ET each Monday will be saved for the following week. 

Q: First time question, long time RACER fan. IndyCar needs to differentiate itself from F1 and other racing to new fans. What is more different than an intimate Sunday with the world’s best racing fans at The Thermal Club!

Five thousand fans at Thermal Club, with incredible access to cars drivers and announcers, vs the embarrassing 5000 (maybe) fans at TMS. It’s not exclusive, its available to an average race fan, with tickets at $475 for the weekend. This is very fair. I travel to Chicago Bears games and often pay much more per ticket for four hours of ‘entertainment’. I also pay that much for GPLB for full access (Photo pass and a race day seat).

I’ll take Thermal. Don’t hide from the small crowd, promote it as an awesome close-up and amazing experience. It’s at a fantastic venue that we gearheads can only dream about. Find a non-racing celebrity to promote and be at the race. If Thermal would allow the access, show the crazy cool cars that ‘live’ there and we only dream about. We all know only the rich can afford it, but that’s race cars, it is what it is. I’ve been to 86 open-wheel races, and am a big fan of the 500 and the Mile, but oval racing looks terrible with empty stands. The background of mountains and palm trees looks good on TV. The small crowd is not that obvious and is part of this unique race.

Thoughts, Marshall?

Bob (Lifetime race fan)

MARSHALL PRUETT: F1 is the most exclusive form of racing on the planet and features exorbitant costs to attend, so IndyCar is doing the opposite of differentiating itself from F1 by doing exactly what F1 does. But minus the packed houses F1 gets at those crazy prices. So IndyCar ends up looking small and unimportant.

According to Penske Entertainment CEO Mark Miles in a call on Friday, Thermal had “3000-ish fans.” To the person tuning in to watch who doesn’t visit RACER.com every day to digest every piece of IndyCar news, all they’d see is a bunch of cars and nobody there to watch them. Not sure how to spin that as a positive. Don’t get me wrong; the place is amazing and I’ve enjoyed every visit since the first for Spring Training in 2023. But if I focus on what’s best for IndyCar while it’s trying to become bigger and more known, holding races in the middle of nowhere with a tiny crowd just ain’t it.
Fix that by at least getting 10,000-15,000 people there to fill some grandstands, and it becomes viable.

Q: I’m a longtime IndyCar fan – old enough to remember the heady days of CART, which probably peaked around when Nigel came to town.

I’m wondering if it’s just me or is something missing this season? Is there a decline in the star power of the current crop of drivers? I’m a 35+ year fan and even I don’t know squat about half the field this year. Don’t get me wrong, I know there’s some serious talent currently racing, but if I were to walk into a bar and start talking about the amazing IndyCar Series, who would the average person recognize? Scott Dixon? Will Power? ‘Maybe’ to both, am I right? Of course there’s some others like Josef, Pato, and Colton just to name a few, but I’m pretty sure I’d get blinky eyes of non-recognition in return here in Australia.

In my humble opinion, IndyCar and FOX would be wise to get on the horn ASAP to get any of the old legends like Paul Tracy, Dario, Mario (it doesn’t help that Michael has gone AWOL), Al Jr, Helio, Robby Gordon… heck even Colton’s Dad and Kanaan are there every weekend and would have great perspectives, no?

Jason Mulveny, aka Bananaspeed, Sydney, Australia

MP: First question I’d ask is what’s different about this year? Palou, Herta, Power, Dixon, Pato, Newgarden, etc., have all been the marquee drivers for the last three or four years, and there’s nothing unique I can think of so far in 2025 that stands out as unique from last year, or the year before, etc. The same lack of CART-era star power is old news; Helio and Dario and Danica were the most recent drivers with big crossover appeal, but Danica left after 2011, Dario was forced to retire after 2013, and Helio’s been Indy-only since 2024.

But IndyCar also hasn’t had a TV partner that’s been as motivated as FOX to try and build today’s stars into bigger names, so are we going to poop on them for failing to fix decades of poor efforts by the series and its former broadcasters… after all of two races?

There’s also the generational item at hand. Almost everyone you mentioned as legends, except for Bryan Herta and Tony Kanaan who are actively involved today, have no relevance to those who either weren’t born or weren’t following when they were big deals. What would a 25-year-old IndyCar fan care to hear from Robby Gordon, whose last IndyCar start came when they were 4? Might be fun for those older fans, but is having old legends on the broadcasts going to move the needle? I just can’t see it.
Let’s give FOX some time to try and improve the situation before turning the presentations upside down.

Sergio Perez says he is open to returning to Formula 1 in 2026 but will only do so if he feels it’s the right project for him.

Red Bull opted to end Perez’s contract two years early over the winter, following a disappointing 2024 season alongside Max Verstappen. The Mexican said he has been sounded out by multiple constructors and RACER understands Cadillac is one team that has shown an interest in his services when it enters F1 next year.

“If I find a project that motivates me fully to come back, where the team believe in me and where they appreciate my career, my experience and everything I can bring to a team, it would be very attractive to consider it,” Perez told F1.com. “That’s why I’ve given myself at least six months to get all my options on the table and make a decision on what I do next with my career.

“There are a few very interesting projects out there. I’ve been approached by a few teams since Abu Dhabi. Right now, the season has started so a few things will open up in the coming months.

“We are talking to a few parties out there. Once I know all my options, I will make a decision. What is very clear to me is that I’m only coming back if the project makes sense, and it’s something I can enjoy.

“I’ve spent a long time in F1 already — I’ve done most of it. Once you step back, you realize how much you give up in life to be in the sport. So, to be in F1 fully committed, I need the motivation.

“It’s good to be in this position knowing that people are keen on you as a driver. People have short memories in F1. Within a couple of races, they forget what you have done. People realize that my position was not the easiest one in F1 — and I’ve done extremely well overall.

With Red Bull making a driver change after just two races of this season and swapping Perez’s replacement Liam Lawson for Yuki Tsunoda, the 35-year-old says the situation is reminding people of the difficult car he was dealing with in recent years.

“Especially last year, I didn’t get to show what I’m able to do as a driver. Now, all of a sudden, people realize how difficult the car is to drive,” he said. “When I joined Red Bull, there had been great drivers who had struggled – Alex [Albon], Pierre [Gasly], they are fantastic drivers and they struggled.

“I spent so long in Red Bull that everyone forgot how difficult the car is to drive, so that was tricky. I feel like that if there is a project that makes sense to me – and also with the regulations changing for 2026 – I feel like taking a year out won’t have any impact if I were to come back.”

Although Lawson’s struggles highlight how tough the situation within Red Bull is to handle, Perez insists he wants to see Tsunoda do well now he is making the step up from Racing Bulls.

“I really want the team to do well, as I have a lot of friends at the team,” Perez said. “I spent four years with them and I want to see them doing well. It’s just a very hard thing to talk about. Right now, I’m on the outside — I’ve been in touch with some team members there but when you’re not there internally, it’s hard to know [what’s happening].

“For me, it was very simple — the car is just quite difficult to get 100% out of it, to get the confidence out of it — and the things I struggled with, even Adrian [Newey, the team’s former design chief] talked about them. But I want to wish them the best. Woody [Richard Wood], who is a great friend of mine, is engineering Yuki now so I really hope they do well.

“Yuki has the talent, has the speed and, more than that, you need the mentality to cope with it. I think he has the right mentality and the right attitude to cope with it. I hope they will succeed.”

Red Bull will run a white livery to honor its power unit partnership with Honda at the final Japanese Grand Prix together, while Haas also has a special design for Toyota’s home race.

The Red Bull and Honda Formula 1 partnership began in 2019 — a year after junior team Toro Rosso started using Honda power units — and has since yielded four drivers’ championships and two constructors’ titles, including 64 race victories across both teams.

With Honda becoming the works supplier to Aston Martin under the new power unit regulations starting in 2026 and Red Bull building its own powertrain, this year marks the final time the partnership will compete at Suzuka and so Red Bull will run a livery that is inspired by Honda’s RA272 — the car that delivered the Japanese manufacturer its first victory in F1 back in 1965.

“Our relationship with Honda deserves celebration, it has been one of continued success and brought the team one of the most triumphant and dominant periods in our history,” team principal Christian Horner said. “Max [Verstappen] has won four world titles with a Honda power unit and the team have lifted two constructors’ titles, in addition, and Honda’s reliability enabled to complete the most successful season in the sport’s history in 2023.

“This livery is a tribute to Honda’s success in the sport and the final year of what has been a thoroughly enjoyable partnership. I am looking forward to seeing it out on track.”

Both Verstappen and new teammate Yuki Tsunoda will run special helmet designs and white race suits this weekend as well, on what will be the second occasion Red Bull has carried such a livery, following the 2021 Turkish Grand Prix.

“It is quite moving to see the RA272 tribute livery on the latest Red Bull Racing machine, in the final year of Honda and Red Bull’s partnership,” Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe said. “Our successful path will continue to shine in the history of F1.”

Although the Japanese Grand Prix takes place at a Honda-owned circuit. one of the other teams with a Japanese technical partner — Haas — is also running a special livery this weekend. Haas and Toyota Gazoo Racing have been working together since late last year, and Haas is marking the start of the cherry blossom season in Japan with a special “sakura” design on its VF-25.

“After a very successful weekend in Shanghai, we’re energized to come to Japan,” team principal Ayao Komatsu said. “Suzuka is a very challenging circuit both for drivers and engineers to setup the car right.

“Even though we raced competitively in Shanghai, we know that we still carry a fundamental car issue that was exposed in Melbourne. We’re going into this weekend with our eyes wide open to tackle any challenges we might face and aim to get the best out of the VF-25 and our drivers.”

Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) will sell its stake in the Aston Martin Formula 1 team but remain title sponsor, as part of an equity raise aimed at generating over $160 million.

The car company chaired by F1 team owner Lawrence Stroll announced it would cut 5% of its workforce in February due to market conditions. Trump administration tariffs on imported vehicles have now also had an impact and led to Stroll committing to increasing his shareholding to 33%, raising nearly $70m, while the sale of AML’s minority stake in the F1 team is expected to generate over $95m.

The F1 outfit says the news “underscores our Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll’s long-term and unwavering commitment to both Aston Martin and the current Formula 1 team,” while revealing that there is a long-term agreement in place “to ensure the Aston Martin name remains at the pinnacle of motorsport for decades to come.”

While the sale of the F1 stake is planned, no buyer has yet been identified, with Stroll engaging the investment bank Raine Group to help find an investor. The team says the intent is to work with “a strategic investor who can add long-term value to the team and the brand” but gives no timeframe for the sale.

“These moves demonstrate that Aston Martin’s place on the Formula 1 grid is as secure as ever,” Stroll said. “AML recently re-committed to its long-term sponsorship and licensing agreement with AMF1, confirming that the legendary Aston Martin brand and its British racing green colors will compete in Formula 1 for decades to come.”

Aston Martin is currently seventh in the constructors’ championship with 10 points from the opening two races but welcomed design guru Adrian Newey to the team at the start of last month as it prepares for new regulations and to become the Honda works team from 2026 onwards.

Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko says the recent driver swap that brought Yuki Tsunoda to Red Bull Racing and sent Liam Lawson back to Racing Bulls took into consideration performance clauses that could allow Max Verstappen to leave the team.

The move is the earliest that Red Bull has ever changed drivers during a season, and Marko said the team’s priority is winning the drivers’ championship with Verstappen, acknowledging that a failure to secure good enough results could open the door for the Dutchman to leave.

“We have this huge motivation to achieve this fifth title,” Marko told the BBC. “We also know that if we don’t deliver for Max, all the top drivers have performance clauses in their contract, so we have to make sure he gets a car where he can win. There was a very constructive meeting last Thursday, Max with the engineers, and they discussed how to go forward to improve the car and make it more drivable and to have a wider range of drivability, and all that went very positive.

“It’s just two races. We are eight points behind [Lando Norris] and the whole team is focused to achieve this fifth title – which we didn’t make with [Sebastian] Vettel, but this time there is a possibility. If you look at the lap times from Max on the hard tire [in China], we were competitive — not everywhere like the McLaren, but we are not so much off as it looks sometimes.”

Verstappen is understood to have been supportive of Lawson and was against a change so early in the season, citing the difficulty driving the RB21 as central to the New Zealander’s struggles. However, Marko said it was clear Tsunoda has more confidence and experience to lean on at this stage of the year.

“RB21 is not the fastest car, but nevertheless very difficult to drive,” he said. “Max can handle it but not — in this stage — Liam,” Marko said. “We were worried his self-confidence is so damaged that he couldn’t bring his normal performance.

“Tsunoda made a big step. Now in his fifth year, he’s a much stronger personality. He changed his management, he’s far more mature. He has more confidence and he did do very good races [in Australia and China], it’s just the strategy didn’t work at Racing Bulls. But in this case with a very difficult car, experience is something which will help.

“On the other hand, we have two drivers for the constructors’ championship but also to support Max strategy-wise — if you have two drivers top five or eight, it is easier to max a strategy that favors the number-one driver.”

Marko said Tsunoda will be given until the end of the season alongside Verstappen, despite the quick decision to replace Lawson.

Esteban Ocon admits Haas still needs to rebuild its confidence despite what he describes as an amazing turnaround between the first two races of the 2025 season.

Haas had a solid pre-season of testing but was comfortably the slowest car at the Australian Grand Prix and was not in the mix for points in a chaotic race. One week later, the team bounced back with double points in China — eventually promoted from seventh and 10th to fifth and eighth due to post-race penalties — but Ocon says the next target is to be consistently competitive.

“We need to stay on top of our game,” Ocon said. “The confidence is not yet there, because it’s only race two and we’ve been swinging in performance from bottom of the bottom to midfield to now top of the midfield.

“So, we need to stay on top of what we are doing, focus on ourselves and optimize what we have. I know there’s more performance to unlock from the car and that’s very good to see.”

Despite his words of caution, Ocon is full of praise for the job Haas managed to do between back-to-back races in Australia and China, and he hopes it shows what the team is capable of.

“Not that many days ago, we were dead last in Melbourne and it was looking difficult,” he admitted. “But, we didn’t sleep much — we couldn’t eat very much, in the words of Ayao [Komatsu, team principal] — but it was all worth it, because we discussed everything about where to unlock that performance from the car. We knew there was more performance to be had.

“Obviously, it’s a good surprise to see that we still can improve some more, and that’s where we are. So, it’s very good signs. But honestly, amazing turnaround from the team — proud of everyone back in Maranello and Banbury. I think they’ve done an amazing job putting their hearts into it and trying to find solutions.

“So, well done to them and well done to Ollie [Bearman], because double points for us is a massive thing. He was out of position [in the Sprint] and it’s really great to see him coming back on an alternate strategy as well. We’ve made it work, and it’s great to see. So, hopefully only the beginning.”

Andrea Kimi Antonelli has proven to be “a brilliant fit” into Mercedes as Lewis Hamilton’s replacement according to trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin, who believes there is a lot more to come from the rookie.

Mercedes opted to promote 18-year-old Antonelli after just one season of Formula 2 following Hamilton’s switch to Ferrari, marking the first time it has run a rookie driver since returning to the sport in 2010. Off the back of two top-six results to start his F1 career, Antonelli has impressed Mercedes and Shovlin says the team has been enjoying helping him deliver on his potential.

“He’s a brilliant fit in the team,” said Shovlin (pictured above with Antonelli). “It’s difficult to come in after a driver who’s been as successful as Lewis has. And for Kimi, it’s still really early days in his F1 career. Now happily, he’s got an extremely experienced race engineer with Bono [Peter Bonnington] who’s helping him work out how to approach the weekends and how you build your speed and how you work on the car setup.

“Everyone in the team’s quite excited to be working with him and he’s just enjoying it. I think in Melbourne, he couldn’t quite believe he was actually starting an F1 race. Having your first race being a wet one, well, that’s particularly tricky. But he’s settling into it and I think there’s a lot more to come from Kimi.”

Antonelli’s encouraging start has mirrored that of Mercedes, with George Russell scoring two podiums in the opening two rounds, and Shovlin says the early signs are promising for the team.

“We’ve shown that we’ve got a car that works well over a range of circuits,” he said. “What we’ve also seen, though, is that McLaren are probably the team to beat. Max [Verstappen] is pretty quick. Ferrari certainly don’t look like they’re far behind and they’ve had a bit of bad luck. So it’s a pretty tight fight at the front.

“We’re working hard to try and bring development to the car because, as I said, we think that we need to close that gap to McLaren in particular. But we’ve got three very exciting circuits. Suzuka, that’s a fantastic track — very flowing, very fast. A lot of drivers have that as their favorite on the calendar. First time for Kimi, though and that’s quite a tall order for such a young driver to be going there on their third race. But he’s excited to drive [there].

“Then on to Bahrain. We know Bahrain because we’ve been testing there. It has its own challenges, but hopefully we’ll be at least in the fight for podiums. And then Saudi Arabia. That’s a street track, quite smooth, again, a relatively new tarmac and that throws up its own challenges.

“So, three very different circuits. And by the time we’ve done five, we’ll probably get some idea as to the real order. But as I said, it’s just exciting to start a season with a car that’s working well, that the drivers are enjoying driving. It’s much more predictable and we’re looking forward to the remainder.”

Yuki Tsunoda is ready for the toughest job in motorsports. Or, at least, he believes he is. At 24, with four seasons in Formula 1 plus a strong start to 2025 under his belt, he’s better-prepared for this opportunity than the man he replaced, former teammate Liam Lawson, and backs himself to thrive despite the fact that partnering Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing is regarded by most as career poison.

Tsunoda has nothing to lose. This was destined to be his last year in the Racing Bulls fold, with Red Bull team principal Christian Horner saying last December that after five years in what he called the “support team,” there comes a point where “you’ve either got to let them go at that point or look at something different.” Tsunoda has proved himself worthy of a seat on the F1 grid, but opportunities are limited for ’26 if Red Bull’s B-team does not retain him. The jump to Red Bull presents an opportunity to change the direction of his career, and perhaps even establish himself in a front-running team for the long term.

It’s a big ask, given that not only is he being pitched into a seat regarded by most as the toughest in F1 but also doing so with no prior experience of the car, two races into a season, and for his home grand prix. The devotion of the home crowd and the desire of circuit owner Honda for him to thrive means the pressure will be intense, and how Tsunoda deals with that could set him up for success or failure at Red Bull. He will get more than the ludicrous two weekends afforded to Lawson, but the die will likely be cast one way or the other at Suzuka. Red Bull will soon turn its attention to identifying a replacement for ’26 if Tsunoda doesn’t convince – and convince quickly.

This is a fascinating challenge considering sources within Red Bull have long made it clear that question marks over Tsunoda’s mentality, more than his driving ability, led to him repeatedly being passed over for promotion. This all started when Tsunoda first tested for what was then called AlphaTauri in the post-season Abu Dhabi test in 2020 and the team was astonished by how vocal and emotional his communications were over the radio. It is something Tsunoda has, by his own admission, had to work on.

However, the perception has become increasingly anachronistic as Tsunoda has improved what he calls his “emotional control” significantly. The last time there was a notable problem was in the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2024, when team orders frustrated him late on and he made a statement with an odd lunge and lockup past Daniel Ricciardo on the slowdown lap. Since then, Tsunoda has been in a better place, aside from using an ableist slur during Austrian Grand Prix qualifying, for which he offered “big apologies,” as well as paying a substantial fine. But unacceptable language aside, too often legitimate pushbacks to team instructions are interpreted as problematic when they shouldn’t be. The most recent example was in the Chinese Grand Prix, when he was right to demand he work the front end harder and didn’t accept the pit wall telling him not to. Shortly afterwards, his reasoning was understood and the team backed the decision. Therefore, the idea of a driver who is not working with his team is an outdated one.

F1 has been a steep learning curve for Tsunoda. When he arrived in 2021, finishing ninth on debut in Bahrain, he had a single season in each of European F3 and F2 under his belt and was still very much a work in progress. He confessed to underestimating how tough the step up to F1 would be, and his first season was a chastening experience with too many mistakes. But he gradually learned, to the point where he was able to become the team’s spearhead once Pierre Gasly left for Alpine at the end of 2022. He’s now a far more dependable driver, and any patchiness in his results is more down to his team’s inconsistency than his own shortcomings.

The first two weekends of this year have illustrated that. In Australia, he ran in the top six until the rain returned on lap 44. The team flip-flopped on strategy, leaving him out for too long while other teams called their cars in, turning a strong result into a pointless afternoon. A similar thing happened in the Chinese Grand Prix, where Racing Bulls stuck with a two-stop strategy as others adapted to one. Only his strong run to sixth in the Shanghai Sprint rewarded him with points in a season where he has been a standout performer. The question now is whether he can translate his superb form at Racing Bulls into Red Bull Racing driving a faster, but much trickier, car.

To make his promotion work, Tsunoda must at least partially replicate Verstappen’s skill for extracting the potential from a difficult car. The Red Bull RB21 has plenty of downforce and grip; the trouble is accessing its potential consistently due to its balance limitations. Success or failure in doing so makes the difference between it being a podium threat and being at risk of elimination in Q1. Verstappen’s extraordinary ability is to drive the car in a way that minimizes the limitations and makes the most of that potential.

In qualifying especially, Verstappen’s otherworldly ability to manipulate the car on the brakes and turn-in is what unlocks its performance. The RB21 is prone to both understeer and rear-end snaps, but Verstappen can load the front axle at turn-in to give it the front end grip it needs without the rear stepping out of line. Doing so requires remarkable sensitivity, precision, adaptability and the capacity to react near-instantaneously to the feedback from the car. It’s the F1 equivalent of walking the tightrope. By contrast, Lawson has fallen repeatedly and therefore driving to a much lower ceiling – hence his references to the difficulty of finding “the sweet spot” with this car.

This isn’t simply the problem of a car developed for Verstappen, who thrives with a strong front end and can control the resulting rear-end instability most find too responsive. While such dynamics have the potential for the highest performance ceiling, this requires astonishing talent to control. Yet with the RB21, Verstappen faces an even tougher challenge with a car he says “is still not where I want it to be.” His driving is a delicate form of bullying that is beyond most.

So can Tsunoda do what Verstappen does? It’s unlikely, given Verstappen is, at 27, already established as one of the all-time greats and few drivers in the history of grand prix racing have his ability. The more pertinent question is whether Tsunoda can approximate the Verstappen technique enough to do the job Red Bull needs. That’s usually framed by the team as being about three-tenths off and banking regular points – although as a racing driver with unshakable confidence, Tsunoda himself will doubtless back himself to do far more than that.

There is a reference point, which is the post-season Abu Dhabi test last year. Tsunoda logged 127 laps in the 2024 Red Bull, which was less an opportunity offered by Red Bull and more one facilitated by power unit supplier Honda, which has backed Tsunoda since his early days in single-seaters. There, Tsunoda claimed to feel comfortable in the car and able to push it to the limit.

“I think so — I didn’t really struggle much to adapt,” said Tsunoda. “I didn’t have many dirty laps. On the long runs, I have been able to run consistently and straight away felt the limitations of the car, which if you don’t have confidence in the car, you can’t feel any limitations.”

Although Tsunoda showed what he could do, the die had already been cast and Red Bull’s decision was made – Lawson was going to replace Sergio Perez, subject to the payoff being finalized with the Mexican. The willingness to make the swap with Lawson so early in the season confirms that Tsunoda did a good job in Abu Dhabi.

Tsunoda is definitely better qualified for the challenge than he would have been a couple of years ago and is promoted to Red Bull Racing with the kind of experience two of his predecessors, Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly, had. Tsunoda is, by inclination, a late braker. When I asked him about that in November 2023, this is how he described his style:

“Stronger and fast,” said Tsunoda. “The initial part is stronger. I’ve never seen a driver where the initial part is stronger than me. The releasing part, the later part, he [teammate Ricciardo] is good at. I can learn something from that as a driver.”

This was a significant phase of Tsunoda’s development, one that broadened his window. While his original F1 teammate, Gasly, is also by inclination a late braker, one who thrives attacking the corner provided that the rear end is predictable enough to give him confidence, Ricciardo showed Tsunoda another way. That’s expanded Tsunoda’s toolkit as a driver and, critically, given him a deeper understanding of the value of manipulating the car’s balance using the brakes. To do what Verstappen does, braking late is not an option as it just means struggling to get the car turned. Then you are limited on traction when you try to feed the power in thanks to the extra lock required to get the car through the rest of the corner. Tsunoda at least has a grounding in how to try and achieve this.

The pressure is on, but this is potentially life-changing opportunity for Tsunoda, who can transform himself from handy midfielder to frontrunner. In terms of experience, the timing is right even if it would have been better to give him a winter and pre-season to prepare, but this is the opportunity he craves to prove he can do what Gasly, Albon, Perez and Lawson failed to do before him.

If Tsunoda delivers, and that doesn’t mean matching Verstappen but simply being a useful number two for Red Bull, then this could be a career-making opportunity. If not, it will be a career-breaking one, but at least he’ll have had the belated chance to show what he can do in the least hospitable seat in F1.